Gallup Balkan Monitor-The Impact Of Migration, Balkans
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Focus On:
The impact of migration
Whenever the Western Balkans, “visa liberalisation” and EU enlargement are discussed, the subject
of immigration always comes to the fore. The reason is the assumed potential for mass migration
from the region and the fear by both policymakers and academics alike that this could stop EU
citizens from supporting further enlargement. Even the advocates of Balkan countries joining the EU
use the threat of migration to make their point – former Czech Foreign Minister Karel
Schwarzenberg recently stated that if the Balkan countries were excluded from the EU, problems
would remain and this could lead to “a new migration that no one will be able to stop at (the EU’s)
frontiers” What adds to the
polemic nature of the debate is
the lack of reliable data on the
flow of people and – importantly
– of remittances. This makes it
hard to assess the impact of any
relaxation of the EU’s strict visa
regime.
The Gallup Balkan Monitor’s
Focus
on Migration
report brings first-
hand data to this ongoing debate, as
it summarises the experiences and
opinions of Balkan people on all
aspects of migration. This data was
collected in two waves of the Balkan Monitor
survey – in 2006 and 2008. The findings
show that while relatively high
percentages of Western Balkan residents
have considered leaving their home
countries, these numbers have tended
to decrease in recent years. Relatively
few people now have concrete
migration plans for the near future. The
report also sheds light on the
demographic structure of those
residents willing to leave and on the
target countries of citizens migrating
from the Western Balkans.
Another important finding on migration is the
impact of the inflow of remittances. They were
referred to by a remarkably high number of
interviewees and constitute a relatively high
percentage of household income for their
recipients.
The GBM’s
Focus On Migration
gives a first
impression of how the region’s people see the
issue of immigration from all of the relevant
viewpoints. To dig deeper into this topic and other
key issues of the day, visit
www.balkan-
monitor.eu
for the full GBM survey results and
other reports in this comprehensive
Focus On
series.
GBM Focus On #01
Copyright © 2009 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved.
June 2009
Gallup Balkan Monitor 2009
Focus On: Migration
The material situation as a migration driver
People’s gloomy assessment of the
region’s economic situation makes
them see (or seek) better
opportunities outside of their
country’s borders.
When they were
asked to look at their own situation
and standard of living, many
interviewees expressed
dissatisfaction: majorities of
respondents in all countries - except
for Kosovo and Croatia – are
dissatisfied
with their standard of
living. A similar assessment was seen
in 2006 and it has worsened
significantly in 2008 in both Bosnia
and Herzegovina and Croatia (where
the figures of those
dissatisfied
have
risen from 46% to 58% and from 41%
to 49% respectively). Asked whether
they see their standard of living as
improving, people gave correspondingly pessimistic answers, with more people feeling it was
getting worse
than
getting better;
Albanians in Kosovo and Albania, and residents of Montenegro were exceptions to this
rule. As the interviews were performed before the economic crisis unfolded, it is likely that the level of
dissatisfaction would even be greater today.
Strong dissatisfaction with standard of living, only Kosovo has
satisfied majority
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
DK/NA
50
53
41
38
46
41
49
59 62
59
51
58
60
58
44
47
44
57
60
51
57
49
38 36
38
41
37
40
2002008 2002008 2002008 2002008 2002008 2002008 2002008
Serbia
Monten. Macedonia Albania
Kosovo
BiH
Croatia
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with your standard of living, all the things
you can buy and do?
%, base: all respondents
Kosovo Albanians are the most optimistic
about development of standard of living
Despite the Kosovo Albanians’ optimism regarding their
personal material situation, this group is still the most likely to
see
better opportunities outside their country
. Just under
three-quarters (73%) of this group were convinced that one
could make a better living abroad, with 18% seeing equal
opportunities at home and abroad and just 2% seeing better
opportunities at home. While this assessment makes the
Kosovo Albanians the most critical of their own country in the
region, such an opinion is supported by all other groups except
for the residents of
Montenegro and Croatia.
These two countries are
the only ones where
people seeing
better
opportunities outside of
the country
do not
constitute the largest
group.
Getting better
The same
Getting worse
DK/NA
Kosovo (Albanians)
61
13
25
Montenegro
48
22
29
Albania
38
26
35
Republika Srpska
37
24
38
Macedonia (Albanians)
34
25
39
BiH Federation
32
16
50
Serbia (National)
30
29
39
Only in Montenegro and Croatia
do people perceive sufficient
opportunities in own country
Macedonia (National)
30
26
43
Serbia (Minorities)
29
31
38
Croatia
23
33
44
Kosovo (Serbs)
19
47
28
... there are better opportunities
outside this country
Right now, do you feel your standard of living is
getting better or getting worse? %, base: all
respondents
Kosovo (Albanians)
73
Albania
62
Kosovo (Serbs)
60
Republika Srpska
58
The fact that despite such a negative assessment of their country’s
future development, people do not leave the region in larger numbers
could be explained by the future opportunities people see in their
immediate surroundings. While, across the region, people who think
their country’s economic situation is
getting worse
outnumber those
who think it is
getting better
(43% vs. 34%), people tend to be much
more hopeful about the future of their place of residence: just over half
(52%) of respondents in the Western Balkans think their city or area is
getting better as a place to live, while just under a quarter (23%) think
it is getting worse.
BiH Federation
55
Macedonia
54
Macedonia
50
Serbia (National)
48
Serbia (Minorities)
47
Montenegro
40
Croatia
33
Based on the current conditions in our
country, which of the following
statements best reflects your opinion?
For people like yourself…
%, base: all
respondents
2
Gallup Balkan Monitor 2009
Focus On: Migration
The current state of Western Balkan migration
Willingness to migrate is decreasing in the whole region;
strongest drops in Montenegro and Kosovo
All countries in the Western Balkan region
have seen a decrease in their residents’
willingness to leave.
This reduction is
especially pronounced in the countries that
recently proclaimed independence:
Montenegro and Kosovo. Here, the
percentage of people willing to leave has
almost halved.
Like to move to another country
Want to continue living in our country
DK/NA
9
7
11
3
14
5
17
7
13 13
4 4
22 22
46 48
58
69
63
75
61
74
44
73
60
84
In most countries, between 15% and 25% of
residents expressed a wish to move abroad.
In Albania, this figure was slightly higher at
just under a third of respondents (31%).
Croatia, however, has by far the lowest
proportion of people who wish to migrate:
only 7%
would
like to move to another
country
while 88%
want to continue living in
Croatia
.
71
88
32 31
33
25
25
22
25
21
39
27
20
15
12
7
Albania Macedonia Serbia
BIH
Monten. Kosovo
Croatia
When people wanting to migrate were
further asked whether they intended to
leave their country within the next year,
those in Albania and Kosovo had the most concrete plans to migrate: 27% and 21%, respectively, thought that
they would
probably
or
certainly
not be living in their country of residence within a year of being asked the
question.
Overall, one cannot speak of the likelihood of mass migration from the Balkans. Given that 24.7 million people
live in the Western Balkans, the 21% of people in the region aged 15 years or older willing to leave their
countries would mean a maximum of 4.34 million migrants. Of the potential migrants, only 17% stated that
they would
certainly
or
probably
have left their country in the year following the survey: this amounts to a
total of 720,000 Western
Balkan residents with short-
term migration plans, of which
only 120,000 were certain that
they would leave. By applying
these figures to the most
popular migration destinations
listed on page 5, it is possible
to indicate rough estimates for
the number of short-term
migrants from the Western
Balkans that these ―target‖
countries might have to
expect. The most popular host
countries are currently
Germany (they could expect
15,000 potential migrants), the
USA (13,000), Switzerland and
Italy (both 12,000). In total, countries within the EU-27 can expect 70,000 short-term migrants from the
Western Balkans. Given that the EU-27 currently experiences total annual immigration levels of around 3.5
million, potential Western Balkan migration towards the EU can be considered as ―significant‖, but there is no
sign of a ―mass migration in the making‖.
In Albania, BiH and Kosovo, a sizeable percentage of people had
concrete migration plans for the year after the survey
Yes, certainly
Yes, probably
No, probably not
No, certainly not
DK/NA
9
12
9
8
20
15
23
5
1
4
13
4
2
1
24
8
16
17
35
41
41
32
28
33
37
49
43
37
36
36
29
26
Serbia
Croatia Montenegro Albania Macedonia
BIH
Kosovo
In one year's time, do you think you will still live in [country/entity]?
%, base: all
respondents willing to leave the country
3
Ideally, would you like to move (permanently or temporarily) to
another country, or would you prefer to continue living in
[country/entity]?
%, base: all respondents
2
3
3
Gallup Balkan Monitor 2009
Focus On: Migration
Results from the survey further suggest that migration
from the Western Balkans is not likely to be of a
permanent nature: of respondents that mentioned a
desire to migrate, 60% stated that they intended to
return after
a couple of years at the most
.
70,000 potential migrants headed for the EU in
the short term
Current population of Western
Balkans*:
24.7 million
Aged 15+*:
20.4 million
Of those willing to
leave, 6 in 10 are
planning to return
An analysis of the data
according to demographic
subgroups shows that the
younger the people
interviewed, the more likely
they were to express the wish
to emigrate: 37% of 15-24 year-
olds would
like to move to
another country
, compared to
just 11% of those aged 55 and
older. This preference was
especially pronounced in
Albania (51% of those aged 15-
24), Serbia (42%) and Bosnia
(38%). Otherwise, demographic
factors had little influence on residents’ migration plans: there were no differences
between men and women or between rural and urban dwellers in their desire to
migrate. However, a slight correlation between the level of education and the wish
to leave the country could be observed: among interviewees that did not finish
secondary school or had graduated from university, one-fifth would like to move to
another country, while this number rose to a quarter of those with all other levels of
education.
213% “would like to leave their
country”
4.34 million
16.6% of these say that they
will probably or certainly
not
be
living in their country in one
year’s time
Would like to move
temporarily
Would like to move
permanently
DK/NA
720,000
Concrete short-term plans (will
“certainly” be living somewhere
else within one year):
120,000
5
Likely to be heading to the EU**
70,000
35
* CIA World Factbook, April 2009 data,
www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook
** Estimated on the basis of 2006 country preferences
60
You mentioned, that
you would like to move
to a different country,
would you move only
temporarily (for a
couple of years at
most), or you would
like to spend your life
in another country?
%,
base: all respondents
This observation also addresses the effect of the ―brain drain‖, feared by many when
migration from the region is discussed. The low level of graduates that expressed the
desire to emigrate suggests the absence of such a
danger. However, it might be a consequence of the
fact that many highly-educated people with Balkan
origins have already left the region.
People with family
abroad are more likely to
migrate
People with family members abroad are more likely to
follow their migratory path. This phenomenon, often
referred to by academics in this field, also finds support in the GBM data: while
across the whole region, 17% of respondents without family abroad expressed
the wish to leave, the figure rises to 25% among those with family that have
already made a step across the border.
Like to move to
another country
Want to continue
living in our country
75
65
When people stated that they had friends or relatives living abroad, they were
also asked in which country these persons mostly lived. The answer to this
question can be used as a rough indicator of the ―target‖ countries for recent
migrants from the Western Balkans: the countries named most often were
Germany, Italy and Greece. Of these, Germany was mentioned the most
frequently by far; this country hosted most of the refugees and migrants from
Ex-Yugoslavia in the 1990s. Switzerland, Austria and the United States were also
often mentioned as popular migration destinations for Western Balkan
residents.
17
25
Without family
abroad
With family
abroad
Ideally, would you like to
move (permanently or
temporarily) to another
country, or would you prefer
to continue living in
[country/entity]?
%, base: all
respondents
Those countries were also mentioned most often when people, who had
expressed a wish to migrate earlier in the interview, were asked about their
desired destination. Once again, the country named most frequently was
Germany with 12.5% of responses, the United States, Switzerland and Italy were also popular (each one being
mentioned by around 10% of respondents).
4
Gallup Balkan Monitor 2009
Focus On: Migration
Young people are the most eager to leave, no pronounced “brain drain” in the making
Like to move to another country
Want to continue living in our country
Can’t stay because of lack of opportunities
Can’t move, because has no Visa
DK
5
5
5
3
4
5
6
4
0
3
4
5
1
2
2
1
1
1
53
63
69
66
67
73
74
69
67
68
84
68
37
27
24
25
25
23
23
21
22
20
19
11
Ideally, would you like to move (permanently or temporarily) to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in
[country/entity]?
%, base: all respondents
Germany, Italy and Greece have the highest
number of migrants from the region
Germany, the US, Switzerland and Italy are
people’s most desired migration targets
Germany
17.1
Germany
12.5
Italy
10.2
United States
10.6
Greece
7.6
Switzerland
10.0
Switzerland
7.4
Italy
9.9
Austria
7.3
Australia/New Zealand
5.8
United States
5.8
France
5.2
Serbia
5.3
Austria
5.0
Croatia
5.0
Greece
4.8
BiH
4.7
Sweden
4.5
Montenegro
3.3
Canada
4.5
France
2.9
England
4.5
Australia/New Zealand
2.8
Spain
3.8
Canada
2.8
Netherlands
2.1
England
2.5
Norway
1.9
Slovenia
2.4
Slovenia
1.8
Which are the three countries where you have most
friends or relatives living?
% of countries named, base: all
respondents with friends or relatives outside of the country
Which are the three countries that you would
consider to move to?
% of countries named, base: all
respondents willing to leave their country
5
1
1
1
1
1
1
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